Climate Change and Climate Disaster

Abstract Changes in water resources and the subsequent structure of ecosystems can have adverse effects on human societies. These effects can manifest in security issues, the provision of basic needs, and social and cultural relations. In this context, the drying up of Lake Urmia will have detrimental effects on the economic, social, environmental, and political-administrative structure of the country.The present article uses a descriptive-analytical method to seek a spatial explanation of the consequences of the drying up of Lake Urmia and strategies for the lake's restoration. Data collection was carried out through survey and library studies. The statistical population of the research is an elite panel consisting of 60 people (30 experts and 30 executives), who were selected using a snowball sampling method. The structural interaction approach with Mic Mac software and the interactive interaction approach with Scenario Wizard software were used to analyze the data.The findings of the research showed that according to the output of the structural interaction approach, the variables of decreasing water and soil resources, formation of ethnic conflicts, stagnation of housing and land prices, reduction of investment opportunities, reduction of production and income, reduction of people's purchasing power, damage to national unity and development, participation based on ethnic power and expansion, and socio-political gap, challenges in physical-spatial management, increase in unemployment, and reduction of tourist arrivals are the main consequences of the drying up of Lake Urmia.

Abstract The role of human activities on exacerbating climate changes and human society's exposure to the risks is the main reason to deal with the phenomena as the most priority among the world's problems. These changes are due to dramatically increasing greenhouse gases in the atmosphere during last century. Climate change is mainly known as increasing in global temperature. Melting of polar ice, rising of oceans level, long-term droughts, water resource depletion, storms and flash floods, extreme temperatures, increasing of dust and air pollution. Following repeated warnings by scientists in 1992, "United Nations Convention on Climate Change" was held by United Nations to address this issue. In order to stabilize concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere to a certain level, the convention arranges an annual conference entitled "Conference of the Parties", in one of the member countries. In this study climate change and its risks and the importance of holding this conferences are discussed. Challenges to be faced and the actions to be taken related to this issue were also examined.

Abstract The aim of this study is to investigate synoptic change's monsoon system, South East Iran. Since precipitation is indicative instability and influx moisture, Precipitation's sweeping of the area was considered as a base to expand monsoon into Iran. The data include precipitation in synoptic, rain-gauge stations and NCEP-NCAR data. Grad's software was used for mapping. The results showed that in surface, the establishment of a broad low pressure in the Persian Gulf, Pakistan and expansion tab of Turkey high-pressure for a trough along the Zagros is responsible for the spread of monsoon. In 500 ha in events 1, 2 and 4, create a trough and positioned in the eastern areas in front its and in the third event the sawed-off tabs Russia for Cutoff low on Afghanistan, caused monsoon system penetration into the Iran. The profile of the area Omega is representing negative Omega at this time. Following lines showed the establishment the cyclone over the Indian Ocean in events 1, 2 and 4 and on Afghanistan in event 3 the groundwork for expanding the monsoon system. Events 1, 2 and 4 field of shared water systems that come from India, while the event 3 moisture is provided from Afghanistan that actually the tab moisture that has penetrated through India to Central Asia. Furthermore, monsoon expanded with positive vorticity is at ground level and negative vorticity at 500 hPa level.

Abstract In this study, hourly data of dew point temperature from 162 stations of the country, which had more than 10 years of data, were extracted from the database of Iran's Meteorological Organization during the period from 1951 to 2010. The hourly dew point temperature data includes 8 times and daily mean. Different methods can be used to assess the time series behavior of climate data. In this study, in addition to the linear regression trend test, a frequency analysis method was used to evaluate the dew point temperature behavior over the past few decades. For estimating the trend, the smoothed average of the hourly data was used and for frequency analysis, the daily mean dew point temperature was used.
In frequency analysis, the statistical period was divided into six decades according to the Julian calendar, and then, the frequency and percentage of frequency of the data were calculated. The distribution of the temperature of the dew point of the first decade was compared with subsequent decades.
A review of the decade to decade of dew point temperature in Iran has shown that, in general, its temporal behavior is changing. The percentage of distribution of the dew point temperature has shifted to low temperatures. Analysis of the linear regression test on the smoothed series the hourly dew point temperature showed that 18, 21 and 00 hours had a weakening trend. While at 03, 06, 09, 12, 15 and the average daily, a steep slope has occurred. The average dew point temperature in the solar decades of 30-60 degrees was about 5 degrees Celsius, and in the 1980s the solar fluctuated around 3.8 degrees Celsius. This decrease was accompanied by a sudden drop in the late '60s, which could be a sign of the drying of the moisture content of Iranian atmosphere.

Abstract Climate change in form of the rainfall pattern transformation has disrupted the different dimensions of the countries national security. Meanwhile, increasing the temperature and reducing the rainfall in those of countries where located on the world desert strip, have had the most impacts on environmental security especially their food production and security. The available date in our country shows that groundwater levels have been decreased because of changing the rainfall pattern during two recent decades and increasing the water consumption. In between, increasing the temperature and decreasing the rainfall during two past decades has had the great impact on the central catchment area. This study focuses on the analyzing the effect of climate change on the food security in the jeroft city. This article with its functional nature is based on this mean hypothesis that food security in this part of country is effected by climate change in form of transforming the rainfall pattern especially increasing the temperature and decreasing the rainfall. The methodology of this text is descriptive- analytical. Its data have collected by library method and analyzed by statistical software R. The result of the study showed that climate change has a positive and significant effect on food security in southern Kerman province with a significant level of 99%.

Abstract Rising greenhouse gases and subsequent global warming are among the problems leading to climate change. It directly affects various factors related to human life, so in the present study, the data of the fifth report of CSIRO model under three scenarios RCP8.5, RCP4.5 and RCP2.6 for the next period 2020 2100 as well as two LARS scaling methods WG and Delta method were used to simulate precipitation, minimum and maximum temperatures in East Azerbaijan province. In evaluating the LARS WG model, the error rate of simulation and survey data was evaluated using MSE, RMSE and MAE performance criteria as well as the coefficient of determination and correlation. The results showed that the model is able to predict maximum and minimum temperature parameters with high accuracy, but shows less accuracy in simulating precipitation than other desired variables. Also in Delta Method, the maximum and minimum temperatures are observed for all seasons with an increasing trend, while in the LARS WG model there is a decreasing trend in the next period (2020 2100) for all scenarios. In general, the difference between the operating modes and the LARS WG model for maximum and minimum temperature values in the next period, depending on the type of emission scenario, was obtained between 3.89, 6.33, 7.17 and 2.84. C, respectively. Rainfall has been declining in most seasons under the release scenarios compared to the LARS WG model.

Abstract The purpose of this study was to Analysis of Inversion Indicators of Boundary layer in Shiraz. In this regard, radiosond data was provided at 3.5 local time in the 1380-1394 solar. Then, the height of the meteorological station in Shiraz (1491 m above sea level) was determined as the base of the inertia of the boundary layer of the air and the boundary layer was up to the surface of the geopotential of 700 hp (an average of 1.5 km from the lower layer of air above ground) Selected as the study space. The results showed that October and November are the highest and July's low frequency of inversion days. On this basis, the autumn, winter, spring and summer seasons were the most days of inversion, respectively. After determining the inversion days frequency, thickness, gradient, adiabatic and inversion intensity were calculated in each day. The results showed that October and November are the highest and the lowest of the days of inversion in July. On this basis, autumn, winter, spring and summer were respectively the most invasive days, respectively. The highest inversion gradient occurs in September and the lowest in January. The highest lapse rate is in March and the lowest is in July. This feature is in consonant with the fact that cold weather is more intense than warm weather. At the end, of months were classified according to the inversion intensity. The results showed that the strongest inversions in the January and the lowest in the July occur.

Abstract In this survey, we recognize synoptic patterns which lead to comprehensive and heavy rainfall from March 16th-31st, 2019 in Iran. Therefore, data of earth and the upper atmosphere have been used. The earth data include precipitation amount of stations in the flood zones of Iran. The upper atmosphere data consist of patterns in ECMWF. Three heavy rainfall systems heavy rains in Iran, have been examined. Results shows that the establishment of Cut-off Low plays an important role in heavy rains. In the first system which is stimultaneous with the flash flood of Golestan, a transferring of dynamic low-pressure of system and its cyclonic circulation make rainfall start. The speed of circulation system was reducing, when it established over Caspian Sea and under the influence of pressure Gradiant, humid currents in the low-level of atmosphere have been moved to south and east side of the coast. In this area, heavy rains generally take place in a clod front which transports a large amount of humidity from the sea to Golestan with increasing perssur Gradient between Siberian high and Cut-off Low pressure under the influence of convection currents. A merger between low-pressur of Sudanese and Mediterranean is the main factor for the second and third systems. Heavy rains in the west side of Iran happen, because of an establishing of blocking system in the middle-level and making Cut-off Low which lasts for a few days, with transportation of humidity from various sources.