Climate Change and Climate Disaster

Prediction and assessment of temperature changes in the west and southwest of Iran

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

zahra taran 1
Seyed Hossein Mirmousavi 2

1 university of Zanjan

2 Professor of Climatology, Zanjan University

Abstract
Climate change in the twenty-first century is the most important challenge facing human societies. Considering the effect of temperature in each region's climate and the importance of its prediction in environmental planning, the use of general atmospheric circulation models has been widely used to assess and predict temperature variations. In this research, the prediction and evaluation of temperature changes in the west and southwest of Iran during the statistical period of 1961-1990 for the period of 2011-2100 has been discussed. For this purpose, temperature network data of 30 synoptic stations related to western and southwestern provinces of Iran have been used on a daily, monthly and annual scale. Then, by using exponential microscale model, the average temperature changes were predicted and evaluated by RCP 2.6 and RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios, then its maps are drawn by Surfer software. The results indicate an average temperature increase in all seasons. According to the annual period scenarios, the highest mean increase with a high coefficient of variation in the northern regions, including the stations of Sanandaj, Bijar, Saqez and Hamadan, has been observed. Some of the southern half of the range, such as Izeh and Koohrang, with the least variability, will experience the slightest increase in average temperatures.

Keywords

Climate change
temperature
SDSM
prediction

Subjects

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