Climate Change and Climate Disaster

Investigation of the Spatiotemporal Correlation of the Impact of Teleconnection Patterns on Temperature and Precipitation Variations in West and Northwest Iran: The 1987–2022 Period

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

ehsan sooreh 1
bahareh batmani 2
masoud jalali 3
ahmad safari 2

1 Ph.D. Student in Climatology, Faculty of Planning and Environmental Sciences, University of Tabriz, Tabriz, Iran

2 PhD Candidate in Climatology, Faculty of Humanities, University of Zanjan, Zanjan, Iran

3 geography, zanjan university, zanjan, iran

10.30740/cccd.2026.2082174.1098
Abstract
Precise elucidation of the dynamic interactions between large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns and hydro-climatic variability in mountainous and semi-arid regions is a prerequisite for environmental risk management. This study was conducted to investigate the correlation of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Arctic Oscillation (AO), and Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) with temperature and precipitation in western and northwestern Iran over the period 1987–2022. Data from 20 synoptic stations were processed using Pearson correlation, Canonical Correlation Analysis (CCA), and Inverse Distance Weighting (IDW) spatial modeling. Pearson results indicated that the highest positive correlation of temperature was with MEI (0.21), while the highest negative correlation of precipitation was with NAO (–0.19). Although linear correlations were weak (mostly <0.20), canonical analysis revealed a significant and non-linear climatic response. The highest canonical correlation coefficients were recorded at Ardabil (0.266), Mahabad (0.232), and Khoy (0.231). Precipitation, with a canonical loading of –0.78, exhibited the highest influence from NAO (particularly at Sarab and Maku), whereas temperature, with a canonical loading of 0.64, was mainly controlled by MEI (notably at Sanandaj). Negative canonical loadings at Sardasht and Jolfa indicated a distinct circulation mechanism. The impact of teleconnections in western Iran is a function of synergy with Zagros topography, creating a spatial gradient from the north (dominated by NAO/AO) to the south (dominated by MEI).

Keywords

Teleconnection patterns
Canonical Correlation Analysis
North Atlantic Oscillation
Arctic Oscillation
Multivariate ENSO Index
West and Northwest Iran

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