Climate Change and Climate Disaster

Abstract The aim of this study is to investigate synoptic change's monsoon system, South East Iran. Since precipitation is indicative instability and influx moisture, Precipitation's sweeping of the area was considered as a base to expand monsoon into Iran. The data include precipitation in synoptic, rain-gauge stations and NCEP-NCAR data. Grad's software was used for mapping. The results showed that in surface, the establishment of a broad low pressure in the Persian Gulf, Pakistan and expansion tab of Turkey high-pressure for a trough along the Zagros is responsible for the spread of monsoon. In 500 ha in events 1, 2 and 4, create a trough and positioned in the eastern areas in front its and in the third event the sawed-off tabs Russia for Cutoff low on Afghanistan, caused monsoon system penetration into the Iran. The profile of the area Omega is representing negative Omega at this time. Following lines showed the establishment the cyclone over the Indian Ocean in events 1, 2 and 4 and on Afghanistan in event 3 the groundwork for expanding the monsoon system. Events 1, 2 and 4 field of shared water systems that come from India, while the event 3 moisture is provided from Afghanistan that actually the tab moisture that has penetrated through India to Central Asia. Furthermore, monsoon expanded with positive vorticity is at ground level and negative vorticity at 500 hPa level.

Abstract The coverage of topographic features and natural surfaces are the most imperative factors affecting the climate and the type of it in any geographical area. On the other hand, the climatic conditions of each land play vital role on human, animal and plant distribution. Therefore, any activity or planning in various fields such as economics, agriculture, industry etc., cannot be achieved without the recognition of climatic features. Due to the extent of Central Iran, there is a great variety of climates in these regions. In this research, principal components and cluster analyses were used through the application of GIS to identify the micro-climate regions in this area. For this purpose, from 7 central Iran's meteorological stations 5 weather data have been selected in a 30-year statistical period (1987-2016). Proportional to the distance of the station and replacement, the selected variables, dimensions on 15×15 Km grid were extended on central Iran. Using the Kriging method, values of 5 variables were estimated. To reduce the dimensions of the data matrix, component analysis through Varimax rotation  and cluster analysis method was applied to determine the micro-climate regions, and maps were drawn using GIS. The results of this research showed that central Iran's micro-climate regions are made up of four components, namely humidity, sunny hours, precipitation and cloudy days, which form 0.75% of the variance of the primary variables. In the division of the central parts of Iran's climate the main characteristic is the importance of precipitation, humidity, cloudiness and sunny hours. Cluster analysis was performed on the variables under consideration and based on factor eign values, in Central Iran there are four micro-climatic regions.

Abstract In this study, hourly data of dew point temperature from 162 stations of the country, which had more than 10 years of data, were extracted from the database of Iran's Meteorological Organization during the period from 1951 to 2010. The hourly dew point temperature data includes 8 times and daily mean. Different methods can be used to assess the time series behavior of climate data. In this study, in addition to the linear regression trend test, a frequency analysis method was used to evaluate the dew point temperature behavior over the past few decades. For estimating the trend, the smoothed average of the hourly data was used and for frequency analysis, the daily mean dew point temperature was used.
In frequency analysis, the statistical period was divided into six decades according to the Julian calendar, and then, the frequency and percentage of frequency of the data were calculated. The distribution of the temperature of the dew point of the first decade was compared with subsequent decades.
A review of the decade to decade of dew point temperature in Iran has shown that, in general, its temporal behavior is changing. The percentage of distribution of the dew point temperature has shifted to low temperatures. Analysis of the linear regression test on the smoothed series the hourly dew point temperature showed that 18, 21 and 00 hours had a weakening trend. While at 03, 06, 09, 12, 15 and the average daily, a steep slope has occurred. The average dew point temperature in the solar decades of 30-60 degrees was about 5 degrees Celsius, and in the 1980s the solar fluctuated around 3.8 degrees Celsius. This decrease was accompanied by a sudden drop in the late '60s, which could be a sign of the drying of the moisture content of Iranian atmosphere.

Abstract Today, due to global warming, the frequency of heat waves has increased and the severity and continuity have left destructive impacts in the nature. Accordingly, the main objective of this paper is to identify heat waves in Zabol city and their continuity, severity and frequency. For this purpose, we received the daily Maximum and minimum temperature data of the Zabol station from 1961 to 2015. Then the daily average temperature was calculated and the databases formed in MATLAB software. The threshold of 95th long percentile of everyday climate of the year used to identify heat waves. The results of the analysis show that in this region, the low-heat waves have a higher incidence, and fewer excessive heat waves have occurred. The most durable heat waves occurred in the study area during the period from 1971.5.23 to 1971.5.30 and from 2013.7.19 to 2013.7.30 with continuity of 8 and 12 days, respectively. The results shows heat waves as climate hazards have been increasing in the statistical period and have grown more in recent years.

Abstract In this study, in order to determine the variation and temperature trend of 3 hour synop during day and night on monthly, seasonal and annual scale, the hourly data of the synoptic station of Tabriz (with 195768 data) during the statistical period (2017-1951) was extracted and investigated. Using Matlab software, 3-hour data (synops) turned into hourly-monthly, hourly-seasonal, and hourly-annual data. After preparing the desired database, in order to identify the process and the significance of the change process, the nonparametric Mann-Kendall and the slope estimator was also used to determine the slope of each process time line. The results of the study showed that during the day and night, monthly- hourly data has the highest increase at 03:00 in June, with a temperature of 0.71 ° C in every ten years. In the hourly-seasonal view, the summer season at 03:00 increased about 0.66 ° C in per decade. And the highest average annual variation in temperature was observed for synops at 00:00 and 03:00 with an increase of 0.46 degrees Celsius per decade. In general, the results show that the slope of temperature changes in the night synops more than the daily synops and the slope of temperature changes in the warm seasons is more than the cold seasons. According to this trend, energy consumption (cooling) in the next ten years is expected to increase in the summer.

Abstract In the current century, the increase in population and environmental pollution has made more pay attention to the use of new and renewable energies, including wind.One of the renewable energy sources that is currently being expanding is energy frome the wind. The specific geographic location of Iran has made it possible to use this clean energy and it makes it economical. In the present study, the daily and hourly wind speed and direction data from 1987 to 2015 were used to determine the potential of wind energy in Kavir, desert and Makran coast regions. After quantitative and qualitative control of the data, the monthly and hourly mean wind speed and their variability were calculated. Also, maps of spatial variations of wind speed were drawn and using spatial analysis methods, a potential wind power map was prepared in the study area. The results showed that the provinces of Kerman, Sistan and Baluchestan, Hormozgan, South of South Khorasan, and parts of eastern and southern of Yazd are among the areas susceptible to installing wind turbines and obtaining energy from the wind. Based on the results, the maximum wind speed at the study area occurs in the early hours of the day until early afternoon (9 am to 15 pm), resulting in the highest amount of energy during this time interval can be extracted. The specific climatic and geographical features of these areas have caused the permanent winds to be fairly strong throughout the day and have a high potential for wind energy.

Abstract Today, increasing energy consumption for heating and cooling is not only greenhouse gas emissions, but also due to climate change and global warming. In this research, for the spatial temporal analysis of heating degree day (HDD) requirement in Khorasan area was used from temperature threshold of 18 degrees, minimum and maximum temperature in 16 stations during the period of 26 years (1990-2015). First, data matrices were created in the MATLAB software with an S dimensional array (9496*16), where are the rows, representing time (day) and columns, representing the locations (stations). Finally, it was calculated of heating degree day per month and plotted spatial mapping in ArcGIS. The stepwise regression model was used for correlation and non-parametric Mann-Kendall test at 95% confidence level for change analysis of heating degree day. The results showed that, significant correlation between altitude and latitude with heating degree day requirements in cold months of the year. As a result, for per 1 degree of latitude and 100 meters high, degree day requirements are increased. In other words, the zoning of heating zones has changed and most of the heating needs are limited to mountainous areas of northern Khorasan and most of the heating needs are in central and southern regions of the area. Also, there is significant decrease in trend of heating degree day in the cold season, especially in October, February and March. These results indicate that, the air is warmed relative to the average temperature in the cold and north-eastern regions of Khorasan, and consequently the use of more than crystalline devices which requires more energy to cool the environment and human climatic comfort.

Abstract Three major challenges, include climate change, water resource reduction and desertification. The preparation of daily or up-to-date maps of salinity and mineral changes can play an important role in the proper utilization of water resources Underground water is the most important source of water supply for agriculture in arid and semi-arid areas.For optimal management of water resources as well as maintaining and improving their quality, Location, volume and pattern data of water quality is needed in each specific geographic area. The aim of this study was to determine the most appropriate interpolation method and spatial analysis to evaluation of the groundwater salinity in Great Plains Yazd - Ardakan which is located in the center Yazd province. In order to study the salinity changes of groundwater in this area, the data of 18 years old (1376 to 1392) were used for salinity of the district water wells. After normalization and correction of incomplete data using + GS software best variogram model was chosen. extrapolated the most appropriate method of Geostatistical methods, kriging methods (ordinary) algorithm due to high value (R2) and low error (RSS) to prepare maps And finally salinity maps, GIS software changes and limitations in drawing groundwater salinity maps. Salinity maps show that ultra-high salinity (above 8 dS / m) in the central, north and northeastern parts of the area due to the construction of multiple wells and a long harvest period, as well as in parts of the south-east is located. The western and southwest margins consist of low salinity (less than 2 dS / m) and the rest of the basin is medium to high (4 to 8 dS / m) salinity.