Climate Change and Climate Disaster

Abstract The role of human activities on exacerbating climate changes and human society's exposure to the risks is the main reason to deal with the phenomena as the most priority among the world's problems. These changes are due to dramatically increasing greenhouse gases in the atmosphere during last century. Climate change is mainly known as increasing in global temperature. Melting of polar ice, rising of oceans level, long-term droughts, water resource depletion, storms and flash floods, extreme temperatures, increasing of dust and air pollution. Following repeated warnings by scientists in 1992, "United Nations Convention on Climate Change" was held by United Nations to address this issue. In order to stabilize concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere to a certain level, the convention arranges an annual conference entitled "Conference of the Parties", in one of the member countries. In this study climate change and its risks and the importance of holding this conferences are discussed. Challenges to be faced and the actions to be taken related to this issue were also examined.

Abstract Climate change in form of the rainfall pattern transformation has disrupted the different dimensions of the countries national security. Meanwhile, increasing the temperature and reducing the rainfall in those of countries where located on the world desert strip, have had the most impacts on environmental security especially their food production and security. The available date in our country shows that groundwater levels have been decreased because of changing the rainfall pattern during two recent decades and increasing the water consumption. In between, increasing the temperature and decreasing the rainfall during two past decades has had the great impact on the central catchment area. This study focuses on the analyzing the effect of climate change on the food security in the jeroft city. This article with its functional nature is based on this mean hypothesis that food security in this part of country is effected by climate change in form of transforming the rainfall pattern especially increasing the temperature and decreasing the rainfall. The methodology of this text is descriptive- analytical. Its data have collected by library method and analyzed by statistical software R. The result of the study showed that climate change has a positive and significant effect on food security in southern Kerman province with a significant level of 99%.

Abstract The purpose of this study was to Analysis of Inversion Indicators of Boundary layer in Shiraz. In this regard, radiosond data was provided at 3.5 local time in the 1380-1394 solar. Then, the height of the meteorological station in Shiraz (1491 m above sea level) was determined as the base of the inertia of the boundary layer of the air and the boundary layer was up to the surface of the geopotential of 700 hp (an average of 1.5 km from the lower layer of air above ground) Selected as the study space. The results showed that October and November are the highest and July's low frequency of inversion days. On this basis, the autumn, winter, spring and summer seasons were the most days of inversion, respectively. After determining the inversion days frequency, thickness, gradient, adiabatic and inversion intensity were calculated in each day. The results showed that October and November are the highest and the lowest of the days of inversion in July. On this basis, autumn, winter, spring and summer were respectively the most invasive days, respectively. The highest inversion gradient occurs in September and the lowest in January. The highest lapse rate is in March and the lowest is in July. This feature is in consonant with the fact that cold weather is more intense than warm weather. At the end, of months were classified according to the inversion intensity. The results showed that the strongest inversions in the January and the lowest in the July occur.

Abstract Hazards is a knowledge of human beings. In the ecology of the planet, insects are stable, active, and almost all parts of the biosphere community, and the most diverse group of animals. This variety of biological and regional insects is associated with the geography of mountainous, plain, desert Land levels and qualitative changes in salty and sweet water have been regulated and have led to the active presence of insects in almost all large and small biological units. From the beginning of the advent and during the long evolution, geosciences and geosciences of the four geological periods have been stably restored and, due to their high adaptability, have the potential to blast the population in appropriate climatic conditions. The purpose of this research, which first addresses the issue of insects as a climate risk, is to explain the role and behavior of these organisms in causing many damage to the environment. In this connection, the study of the insect named "Cicadidae" which causes serious damage to the ecosystem, is studied. In the case of the city of Malayer, this study was studied in this connection and during the continuous studies. Field observations revealed that the activity and propagation of this crop are completely dependent on the climatic conditions of the environment and its dependent patters, such as temperature, evaporation, relative humidity, soil and climatic conditions within the soil.

Abstract In this survey, we recognize synoptic patterns which lead to comprehensive and heavy rainfall from March 16th-31st, 2019 in Iran. Therefore, data of earth and the upper atmosphere have been used. The earth data include precipitation amount of stations in the flood zones of Iran. The upper atmosphere data consist of patterns in ECMWF. Three heavy rainfall systems heavy rains in Iran, have been examined. Results shows that the establishment of Cut-off Low plays an important role in heavy rains. In the first system which is stimultaneous with the flash flood of Golestan, a transferring of dynamic low-pressure of system and its cyclonic circulation make rainfall start. The speed of circulation system was reducing, when it established over Caspian Sea and under the influence of pressure Gradiant, humid currents in the low-level of atmosphere have been moved to south and east side of the coast. In this area, heavy rains generally take place in a clod front which transports a large amount of humidity from the sea to Golestan with increasing perssur Gradient between Siberian high and Cut-off Low pressure under the influence of convection currents. A merger between low-pressur of Sudanese and Mediterranean is the main factor for the second and third systems. Heavy rains in the west side of Iran happen, because of an establishing of blocking system in the middle-level and making Cut-off Low which lasts for a few days, with transportation of humidity from various sources.

Abstract Rising greenhouse gases and subsequent global warming are among the problems leading to climate change. It directly affects various factors related to human life, so in the present study, the data of the fifth report of CSIRO model under three scenarios RCP8.5, RCP4.5 and RCP2.6 for the next period 2020 2100 as well as two LARS scaling methods WG and Delta method were used to simulate precipitation, minimum and maximum temperatures in East Azerbaijan province. In evaluating the LARS WG model, the error rate of simulation and survey data was evaluated using MSE, RMSE and MAE performance criteria as well as the coefficient of determination and correlation. The results showed that the model is able to predict maximum and minimum temperature parameters with high accuracy, but shows less accuracy in simulating precipitation than other desired variables. Also in Delta Method, the maximum and minimum temperatures are observed for all seasons with an increasing trend, while in the LARS WG model there is a decreasing trend in the next period (2020 2100) for all scenarios. In general, the difference between the operating modes and the LARS WG model for maximum and minimum temperature values in the next period, depending on the type of emission scenario, was obtained between 3.89, 6.33, 7.17 and 2.84. C, respectively. Rainfall has been declining in most seasons under the release scenarios compared to the LARS WG model.

Abstract Modeling and prediction of climate parameters for formal research, organizational warming and permitted droughts have been avoided. Due to the effect of temperature on the availability of more access to each area and planning in environmental planning, the use of statistical methods for temperature decision making and forecasting is permitted. The purpose of this research on Sarima model is to predict the annual constitution of Yazd and Shiraz synoptic stations on a monthly basis. In this visit of the annual control statistics of the mentioned stations in the years 2017 - 1953 using the parameter method, it is not possible to use different parameter devices, it is not possible to parameterize, but you can also get here put. The best self-confidence practices enable and enable yourself and you can refer to the MSE and AIC for annual and monthly financial services in the US 2032- 2018 is defined by the SARIMA and ARIMA methods using Minitab software. With these apps empowering and controlling your faith, you can choose any year in 2015 and both models may be available in Brazilian (0,1,2) AR0 ARIMA models. For both locations, buy an area dealer. In presenting this self enabling self-belief and self-esteem using Sarima (1,1,2) (0,1,1) for Shiraz and Sarima (0,1,2) shopping centers (0,1, 1) It has been specified to hold an exhibition outside Yazd, indicating that it allows the fitting of the Sarima model without permission.

Abstract On December 16, 2019, short-duration heavy rainfall leads to flashfloods occurred in Khuzestan province, causing many problems for the people in Ahvaz and Abadan. In this study, return period of precipitation and atmospheric pressure patterns leading to this flooded was studied.
The data recorded at Abadan station in southwest of Iran is obtained from Iranian Meteorological Organization. To select the suitable distribution, the Anderson-Darling test is used. Based on this test, the two-parameter lognormal distribution is distinguished as the best one to be fitted on the recorded precipitation of the Abadan station. The statistical distribution characteristics are extracted by using the statistical Minitab software. In this paper the two-parameter lognormal distribution function is used to calculate the return period of the maximum daily precipitation in Abadan station.
Statistical results showed that the extensive rainfall with a high return period and lack of necessary infrastructures to collect surface water can be the major causes of flooding in Abadan.
Synoptic analyzes showed that crossing pressure patterns, which are associated with atmospheric fronts, over Southwest of Iran can provide conditions for extreme weather events spatially gust fronts and sever convective rainfall in the region. High relative humidity and intense vertical velocity in the lower and middle levels of the troposphere are the main factors affecting heavy convective rainfall in the region; the former was due to the humid and warm southerlies winds at the surface and the latter was due to the cyclonic relative vorticity advection in the middle level troposphere.