Natural Geography, Faculty of Social Sciences, Zanjan University, Zanjan
Abstract
Temperature changes are of particular importance as one of the symbols of climate change.The use of statistical methods in describing changes is a useful tool. One of the applications of statistics in climatology is modeling the behavior of climatic elements. One of the most widely used statistical models is ARIMA family models. In this family, the values are modeled based on their past behavior from the statistical models, and are projected into the future. In this research, using the annual temperature data of Sanandaj station during the period of 60 years (1961-2020), the general behavior of temperature in this station was investigated. And also using MATLAB software to fit the appropriate model from the polynomial family and ARIMA modeling. The result of modeling the family of polynomials indicates a quadratic trend of the species in Sanandaj temperature. On the other hand, in the family of the ARIMA model, after checking the AIC value, the ARIMA model (2,2,1) which was relatively better than the other models It was determined as a suitable model for predicting the annual temperature of Sanandaj station.