Climate Change and Climate Disaster

Climatic analysis of long-term changes in precipitation and runoff in northwest of Iran Case study (Sablan basin)

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

Akbar Shahi 1
Karim Amininia 2
mahdi saghebian 3
ebrahim fataei 4

1 Phd student

2 assistant pfofessor

3 associate professor

4 professor

Abstract
The geographical location of Ardabil Province in northwestern Iran has resulted in a highly irregular precipitation system in both spatial and temporal dimensions. The concurrent influence of local and external factors on its climate subjects the Sabalan basin to diverse meteorological phenomena. Consequently, the present study aimed to identify days characterized by heavy and widespread precipitation coinciding with peak discharge levels. To achieve this, daily data from 45 synoptic and rain-gauge stations (affiliated with the Ministry of Energy), alongside discharge data from the Doust-Beiglou hydrometric station, were utilized. Heavy precipitation days were identified using the 95th percentile criterion. Widespread precipitation days were subsequently selected based on a positive anomaly of the 75th percentile of the area affected by heavy rainfall. Following the identification of these events, atmospheric patterns were classified using upper-air data through Cluster Analysis and Lund’s Correlation Method. The results indicate that the Mediterranean cyclone, the Siberian High, atmospheric cut-off lows, and the activity of the Polar Vortex play significant roles in the occurrence of heavy and widespread precipitation within the Sabalan drainage basin.

Keywords

extended extreme precipitation
Sabalan basin
extreme debit
circulation patterns
References
-     Ahmadi.M,lashkari. H, Azadi. M, Keykhosravi.Gh (2015) Detection of climate change with extreme precipitation indices in great Khorasan, Researches in Earth Sciences, Volume 6, Issue 3 - Serial Number 23 2015,Pages 34-52.
-     Alijani. B, J. O’Brien, B. Yarnal (2007), Spatial analysis of precipitation intensity and concentration in Iran, Theor. Appl. Climatol. (2008) 94: 107–124.
-     Azizi, G., Neyri, M., & Rostami Jalilian, S. (2009). Synoptic analysis of heavy rainfall in western Iran (Case study: precipitation period of March 7–14, 2005). Natural Geography Quarterly, vol 1, No. 4, pp. 1–13.
-     Alijani, B., Mirzaei, N., & Jahedi, A. (2019). Synoptic analysis of extreme rainfall and catastrophic floods in Iran (Case study: March 16 and 31, 2019). Climate Changes and Weather Hazards, vol 1, No. 2, pp. 85–140.
-     Asakereh, H. (2011). Fundamentals of Statistical Climatology. University of Zanjan Press, 550 pp.
-     Alijani, B., Khosravi, M., & Esmaeilnejad, M. (2010). Synoptic analysis of heavy rainfall on January 6, 2008, in southeastern Iran. Journal of Climatological Research, vol 1, No. 3 & 4, pp. 1–12.
-     Asakereh, H., & Ashrafi, S. (2024). Comparison of correlation and mean methods in selecting representative days of sea-level pressure pattern classes associated with heavy and widespread rainfall in Iran. Journal of Climatological Research, vol 15, No. 57, pp. 1–20.
-     Asakereh, H., & Khojasteh, A. (2021). Frequency of Mediterranean cyclones entering Iran and their effect on widespread precipitation. Natural Environmental Hazards, Volume 10, No. 27, pp. 159–176.
-     Ataei, H., & Fatemi Niayaf Fakhri Sadat (2013). Temporal-spatial analysis of cyclones in Iran in the solar year 1376 (1997–1998). Geographical Research, vol 28, No. 1, Serial No. 108, pp. 143–161.
-     Alijani, B., & Rezaei, G. (2014). Temporal-spatial distribution of relative vorticity in Iran with emphasis on precipitation. Geography, vol 12, No. 42, pp. 89–102.
-     Alijani, B., & Doustan, R. (2012). Identification of the controlling centers of Iran's climate and related pressure patterns at the 500 hPa level of Iran's atmosphere during the cold period of the year. Geography and Regional Development, No. 19, pp. 255–279.
-     Asakereh, H., & Ashrafi, S. (2024). Comparison of correlation and mean methods in selecting representative days of sea-level pressure pattern classes associated with heavy and widespread rainfall in Iran. Journal of Climatological Research, vol 15, No. 57, pp. 1–20.
-     Bakowska Bielec Zuzanna, Ewa Lupikasza, Long-term precipitation variability on thunderstorm days in Poland (1951–2000), Atmospheric Research 93 (2009) 506–515.
-     Baaghideh. M Entezari.A Alimardani. F(2012) Synoptic Analysis of Rainfall in Atrak and Gorganroud Basins (39 Pervasive). journal of Geography and Development, Volume 10, Issue 26 - Serial Number 26, Pages 113-124
-     Doostan, R (2020) An Analysis of Rainfall Changes in Iran,  Journal of Climate Research, Volume 1398, Issue 40 - Serial Number 40 Vol.10 No.40, Pages 13-25.
-     Farshadfar, E. (2005). Principles and Methods of Multivariate Statistics. Taq-e Bostan, Kermanshah.
-     Hossos, E, C. J Lolis, and A. Bartzokas (2008 ): Atmospheric Circulation Patterns associated with extream precipitation amounts in Greece , Adv.Geosice, 17, 5 -11.
-     Katiraei, P., Hajjam, S., & Irannejad, P. (2007). The contribution of changes in frequency and intensity of daily precipitation to the precipitation trend in Iran during the statistical period 1960–2001. Physics of the Earth and Space, Volume 33, No. 1, pp. 67–83.
-     Khorshiddoust , A.M,  Mofidi. A,  Aasouli. A, Azarm. K,(2016), A Synoptic analysis for the occurrence of springtime heavy rainfall in the Northwest of Iran, Journal of Natural Environmental Hazards, Volume 5, Issue 8.Pages 53-82
-     Lashkari, H. (1996). Synoptic pattern of heavy rainfall in southern and southwestern Iran (Doctoral dissertation in Climatology). Supervisor: Houshang Ghaemi. Tarbiat Modares University, pp. 63–75.
-     Lashkari, H. (2011). Principles of interpreting climatic maps and diagrams. Shahid Beheshti University Press, 316 pp.
-      Lana, A, J. Campins, A. Genov es, and A. Jans (2007). Atmospheric patterns for heavy rain events in the Balearic Islands,Advances in Geosciences.
 
-      Muller ,M., M. Ka spar, and J. Matschullat (2009). Heavy rains and extreme rainfall-runoff events in Central Europe from 1951 to 2002, Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences,Vol 9.
 
-     Masoudian, A. (2005). Identification of Iran's precipitation regimes using cluster analysis. Geographical Research, No. 52, pp. 47–61.
-     Masoudian, A. (2012). Synoptic study of cyclonic actions during the solar years 1340–1382 (1961–2003). Environmental Hazards, Year 1, No. 1, pp. 15–33.
-     Mostafaei, H., Alijani, B., & Saligheh, M. (2015). Synoptic analysis of severe and widespread precipitation in Iran. Spatial Analysis of Environmental Hazards, Year 2, No. 4, pp. 65–76.
-     Mofidi, A., Zarrin, A., & Janbaz, G. R. (2007). Determination of the synoptic pattern of severe and extreme autumn precipitation on the southern coasts of the Caspian Sea. Journal of Physics of the Earth and Space, Volume 33, No. 3, pp. 131–154.
-     Masoudian, A., & Kaviani, M. R. (2007). Climatology of Iran. University of Isfahan Press, 179 pp
-     Masoudian, A., & Jafari Shandi, F. (2014). Investigation of the relationship of synoptic systems affecting heavy rainfall in the low-precipitation zone of northern Iran. Geography and Planning, Year 18, No. 50, pp. 305–331.
-     Masoudian, A., & Karsaz, S. (2014). Synoptic analysis of thickness patterns of heavy rainfall in the southern Zagros region. Geography and Development, No. 37, pp. 15–28.
-     Mohammadi, B., & Masoudian, A. (2010). Synoptic analysis of heavy rainfall in Iran. Geography and Development, No. 19, pp. 47–70.
-     Omidvar.K, Safarpoor, F, Mahmood abadi.M, Olfaty.S, (2010) Synoptic analysis of the effects of cold-core systems on the occurrence of heavy rainfall in central and southwestern Iran, Journal of Spatial Planning and Geomatics , Volume 14, Issue 4Autumn, Pages 161-190
-     Omidvar,K. Narengifard,M, Mahmoodabadi,M, Fakhari vahed,M,(2015), Thermodynamic and Synoptic Analysis of exceptional rains of spring and role of cloud height in occurrence of rains in Shiraz. Quarterly geographical journal of , Issue 47 Vol. 12.
-     Pazhooh, F, Jafari, F (2020) Synoptic analysis of heavy and hazardous precipitations in western and south western Iran during the first ten days of April 2019, Journal of Geographical Data (SEPEHR) , Volume 29, Issue 114, Pages 165-184
-     Sotoudeh. F, Alijani. B,  Saligheh. M,  Akbary.M (2019) The effect of the Zagros Mountains on precipitation-producing cyclones of Iran, Physical Geography Research, Volume 50, Issue 4,Pages 639-653
-     Soltani, S., & Asakereh, H. (2011). Synoptic analysis of heavy rainfall in northwestern Iran. Master's thesis, University of Zanjan, 300 pp.
-      Seibert, P., A. Frank, and H. Formayer (2007). Synoptic and regional patterns of heavy Precipitation in Austria, Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 87.
-      Salahi B, Mahdi Alijahan. (2015). Extracting and analyzing synoptic patterns led to thunderstorm rainfall in Ardebil plain, journal of physical geography in Tehran, 3(8):8-10.
-      Tong Siqin, Xiangqian Li, Jiquan Zhang, Yuhai Bao, Yongbin Baoa, Li Na, Alu Si,(2019) Spatial and temporal variability in extreme temperature and precipitation events in Inner Mongolia (China) during 1960–2017, Science of the Total Environment 649, 75–89.
 

Home

Guide for Authors

Submit Manuscript

Reviewers

Contact Us