Climate Change and Climate Disaster

Choose the best fit possible Hail in North West of Iran (2009- 1992)

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

zahra heydari monfared 1
Seysd Hossein Mirmousavi 2

1 University of Zanjan

2 Faculty member of Zanjan University

10.30740/cccd.2025.737298
Abstract
Northwestern Iran, as the country’s most important agricultural hub and the region with the highest frequency of hail occurrence, experiences the greatest level of damage associated with this phenomenon. The present study was conducted with the aim of selecting a probability distribution best fitted to the data on hail days and planning to reduce vulnerability to this phenomenon. Based on goodness-of-fit tests, except for Bernoulli and hypergeometric distributions, other discrete distributions including Poisson, negative binomial, discrete uniform, geometric, and binomial were able to represent the observed frequency pattern with varying degrees of accuracy. The goodness-of-fit test confirmed the significant superiority of the Poisson distribution at a confidence level of 99%. Marivan station, which has the highest frequency of hail in the entire region, shows the greatest probability of hail occurrence. Following the Poisson distribution, the negative binomial model is introduced as the second most efficient fit. These findings provide a valid statistical basis for designing risk management strategies and reducing hail-related damage in Northwest Iran.

Keywords

Poisson distribution
the negative binomial distribution business
hail
North West

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