Climate Change and Climate Disaster

Forecasting the climate capacity of southern provinces of Iran in 2050 using the SSP2-4.5 scenario and the GFDL-ESM4 model

Document Type : Original Article

Author

Mostafa Ghavidel

Student

10.30740/cccd.2025.737335
Abstract
This study evaluates the climate capacity of the southern strip of Iran in 2050. Due to its high climatic sensitivity and the pressures of human activities, this region is considered one of the country’s key areas in confronting climate change, making future climate projections essential. The objective of this research is to identify favorable and unfavorable areas in terms of climate capacity by 2050. For this purpose, the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) method was used. The data used in the study are humidity, wind speed, minimum temperature, maximum temperature, precipitation, longwave radiation, and shortwave radiation from the SSP 245 scenario and the GFDL-ESM4 model on a daily scale. Seven factors were used in the AHP. AHP computations were performed in MATLAB, and spatial maps were generated in R. The results indicate that the northern half of Fars Province and the northeastern part of Khuzestan Province will be the most favorable regions, while Hormozgan Province and the southern half of Sistan and Baluchestan Province will be the least favorable. Among the seven factors, precipitation, temperature, and humidity were identified as the most influential determinants of climatic capacity.

Keywords

Climate change
climate capacity
forecasting
analytic hierarchy process
GFDL‑ESM4
Subjects

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