Climate Change and Climate Disaster

Explaining Future Scenarios of Hydro-political Relations at the Sub-national Scale and Their Impact on Water Security: Case Study of the Tang Shool Basin

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

Murad Kaviani Rod 1
siavash rasti shuli 1
zakieh Aftabi 2

1 Kharazmi University, Tehran, Iran

2 no

10.30740/cccd.2026.2064154.1072
Abstract
Water security poses a growing policy challenge, critically shaped by hydro-political relations—ranging from cooperation to conflict—among political-spatial units. This applied study investigates future scenarios of such relations affecting water security in Iran’s Tang Shool basin. Using a descriptive-analytical method, the research draws on library sources and field questionnaires, with data processed via Micmac and Scenario Wizard software. Seven key variables were identified: inter-village water distribution, investment in water transfer infrastructure, basin economic development, sub-national water resource management, external water dependency, enforcement of laws on water shares, and local poverty levels. Scenario analysis based on these variables yields five probable future states for sub-national hydro-political impacts on water security: “Favorable,” “Semi-favorable,” “Static,” “At the Threshold of Crisis,” and “Critical.” The current condition leans toward the critical state. The findings underscore an urgent need to reform the water governance system.

Keywords

Water security
hydropolitical relations
Tangshool watershed and water governance

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